By Sama Marwan,
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the weak but significant La Niña phenomenon, which began in December, is likely to be short-lived.
According to the official United Nations website, La Niña is a natural climate phenomenon that leads to cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures and affects weather conditions worldwide.
Recent forecasts from the WMO indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are expected to return to normal levels.
The agency states that there is a 60% chance that conditions will shift to what is known as a neutral temperature range in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle between March and May 2025. This probability increases to 70% between April and June 2025.
The term “neutral in the ENSO cycle” simply means that the ocean is neither unusually warm (as in El Niño) nor unusually cold (as in La Niña). The likelihood of El Niño developing during this period is extremely low, according to the UN agency.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasized that El Niño and La Niña forecasts are crucial for issuing early warnings and taking proactive measures.
She stated: “These forecasts translate into millions of dollars saved in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and transportation. They have also saved thousands of lives over the years by enabling better disaster risk preparedness.”
La Niña, which causes widespread cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, leads to changes in wind patterns, pressure, and rainfall. This phenomenon typically produces climate effects opposite to those of El Niño, especially in tropical regions.
For example, during El Niño, Australia often experiences drought, whereas La Niña can bring increased rainfall and flooding. Conversely, some areas of South America may experience drought during La Niña while seeing wetter conditions during El Niño.
These natural climate phenomena now occur alongside human-induced climate change, which is heating the planet and causing more extreme weather events. According to the WMO, January 2025 was the hottest January on record, despite the cooling effects of La Niña.
The agency continues to monitor both La Niña and El Niño while also providing regular updates through the Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU). This report offers a comprehensive climate outlook based on other major patterns, including those in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. These updates also track sea temperatures, temperature changes, and global and regional precipitation patterns.
With most oceanic regions expected to be warmer than usual—except for the eastern Pacific—the WMO anticipates above-average land temperatures worldwide in the coming season.
