By Sama Marwan,
Cocoa futures are outperforming all other traded agricultural commodities on global exchanges. Cocoa prices rose by 2.5%, while the most actively traded cocoa contracts on the New York Exchange for July delivery surged by 4.57% to $8,674 per metric ton, after reaching an earlier session high of 7.1%, according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
Recent grain processing data from markets in Europe, Asia, and North America, released last Thursday, showed that grinding operations — an indicator of demand — were lower than expected in the first quarter, according to the Spanish newspaper El Comercial.
The paper also reported that Nigerian cocoa exports rose by 24% year-on-year in March, raising concerns about global supply, especially as exports from Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) slowed. Rabobank forecasted a 9% decline in mid-crop yields in Côte d’Ivoire due to delayed rainfall.
Quality issues during the mid-harvest season in Côte d’Ivoire also led some manufacturers to reject cocoa beans.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s cocoa crop forecast was cut by 5% due to weather-related challenges, contributing further to the price hike.
As cocoa prices soar, some European companies have begun to look for cocoa alternatives, leading to weaker demand. Chocolate manufacturers have been forced to raise prices and shrink product sizes — a trend known as “shrinkflation.”
In addition, sugar prices have risen by 8% in 2024, further increasing chocolate production costs. This has resulted in a drop in sales volume, with companies like Hershey and Mondelez reporting a decline in units sold during the last quarter of the year.
