By Sama Marwan,
Hostilities between Israel and Iran have continued since the early hours of Friday, with the fighting so far limited to both parties. However, there is growing concern that the conflict could expand to involve other players—a development that could have dire consequences for the region and the world. So, what are the worst-case scenarios that could emerge from this escalation?
1. U.S. Involvement in the War: A Dangerous and Costly Escalation
On Saturday, Iran stated that Israel could not have launched such an attack without a green light from Washington, and warned it would target nearby U.S. bases in retaliation. According to the BBC, if American citizens were to be killed in Iranian retaliatory attacks, the U.S. administration might be compelled to intervene directly in the war. This scenario is seen as a desired outcome for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seeks deeper American engagement. If the U.S. becomes an active party, the conflict would escalate dramatically, with likely long-term and devastating consequences.
2. Iran Expands Its Target Bank: A Vicious Cycle of Strikes
Experts believe that if Iran fails to inflict meaningful damage on Israel’s well-protected military targets, it may broaden its list of targets to include wider interests. Similarly, if Israel fails to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, it may carry out further strikes, leading to a never-ending cycle of attacks and counterattacks—a spiral of escalating violence in the region.
3. Global Economic Shock: Oil Prices Surge and Inflation Worsens
Oil prices are already high, but further escalation could drive them even higher—especially if Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil passes. Combined with Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, this could cause a catastrophic spike in global energy prices. As the BBC notes, the result would be intensified global inflation and a rise in the cost of living. One of the main beneficiaries of such an outcome would be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who would likely see billions in extra oil revenues to fund his war in Ukraine.
4. Collapse of the Iranian Regime: Chaos and Potential Civil War
While Netanyahu has emphasized his goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities, he has also hinted at a broader objective: regime change in Iran. Experts point out that the scale of the Israeli strikes, the targets chosen, and the rhetoric of Israeli politicians suggest a longer-term ambition to topple the Iranian regime. If this goal is achieved, it could trigger internal chaos or even civil war, similar to what occurred in other Middle Eastern countries, and further destabilize the region.
5. More Hardline Leadership: Accelerated Iranian Nuclear Ambitions
The BBC raises an important question: What if Israel’s military action fails to achieve its goals and instead convinces Iran’s leadership that the only way to prevent future attacks is to accelerate its nuclear weapons program?
What if Iran’s next generation of military and political leaders are more hardline and less cautious than their predecessors? Such developments could lead to more Israeli attacks, fueling a continuous cycle of aggression and potentially triggering a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
These five scenarios underscore the high-stakes risks of continued escalation between Israel and Iran—risks that could reshape not only the regional balance of power but also the global economy and security order.
