By Sama Marwan ,
Russia and China are content with merely condemning Israel for its attacks on Iran. On the other hand, the United States fully backs Israel, assisting it not only politically but also militarily and economically, providing direct protection. With Iran facing this fierce war, Russia and China will lose their main ally in the Middle East.
Hence, the most important question arises: What is the secret behind China and Russia’s disappearance and the absence of direct support to achieve a balance of power between their ally and its enemy?
According to political analyses in the British newspaper The Telegraph, Russia and China possess nuclear weapons and are therefore not keen on Iran acquiring any, as this would weaken their control over Iran. Iran’s reliance on these two countries for its weapon needs would decrease, as nuclear weapons would give it a significant qualitative advantage and affect how other nations deal with it.
The escalating conflict also impacts China’s oil needs. Beijing is the primary importer of Iranian oil and is now affected by Israeli attacks targeting oil refineries there. Furthermore, if the war escalates and Iran targets military bases in Gulf countries, which are China’s second source of oil, China would face a genuine problem with energy supplies.
On the other hand, according to The Moscow Times, the outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel will lead to a short-term increase in oil prices, which would positively impact Russia’s budget revenues from oil and gas.
Another important angle touched upon by the British newspaper is that both countries believe Iran is not managing the conflict with the United States well. The severe economic distress the country has reached due to U.S. sanctions is the biggest example of this. This is one of the main reasons China isn’t undertaking infrastructure projects in Iran, and Russia believes Iran won’t be able to fulfill arms purchase contracts. Ultimately, both countries see a weak Iran as an unhelpful ally.
The Moscow Times added that Russia previously affirmed its partnership with Iran is strategic, not a military alliance. Russia is trying to maintain its relations with both conflicting parties, Israel and Iran. Also, according to the British political magazine The Spectator, Russia has long delayed selling advanced Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to Iran (despite official Iranian statements of possession, there are many doubts that Russia has delivered them), which could rival Israeli aircraft in the air.
In contrast, Israel has refused to supply Ukraine with weapons despite strong pleas from Kyiv.
A report from Al Jazeera news channel highlighted China’s keenness on its relations with Israel, especially commercial ties, the most important of which is the Belt and Road Initiative, a massive economic project involving several countries to expand trade and investment.
The Telegraph also mentioned an important point in its report, stating that Iran overlooked what happened in Syria with Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which was heavily and directly supported by Russia. Despite this, they couldn’t help him when he was falling.
Ultimately, Russia and China are still seeking a political solution to the crisis, and Putin has spoken directly with President Donald Trump to de-escalate.
