International Energy Agency Lowers Oil Demand Forecasts for 2024

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced its oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 today, attributing the adjustment to lower-than-expected consumption in OECD countries and declining factory activity.

The Paris-based agency cut its growth forecasts for this year by 130,000 barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day, adding that the release of pent-up demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, after the easing of COVID-19 restrictions has ended.

In its monthly oil report, the IEA stated, “Delivery data for several countries came in weak as unseasonably warm weather late in the winter reduced heating fuel usage in the OECD more than usual.”

The report continued, “Additionally, the prolonged downturn in factories in advanced economies continued to reduce demand for industrial fuel.”

The IEA added that demand growth in 2025 will decrease to 1.1 million barrels per day, with expectations of stable global GDP growth and an acceleration in the expansion of the electric vehicle sector.

The International Energy Agency noted that China’s contribution to the global increase in oil demand is expected to decrease from 79% in 2023 to 45% in 2024 and 27% next year.

Global crude oil trade reached $1.45 trillion in 2022, with exports growing by 46.1% between 2021 and 2022.

Saudi Arabia led the world in annual oil exports from 2020 to 2022, accounting for 16.2% of global crude oil exports. The United States is also a significant exporter, representing 8.16% of exports in 2022.

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