Translated By Sama Marwan,
There is no regional or international political analysis today that does not mention that the Middle East is on the verge of significant, dangerous, and uncertain changes.
No one can predict the surprises that may arise, but everyone agrees that the region is facing political and military storms that could potentially alter the geographical map of countries, topple regimes, and possibly even erase entire nations.
Every ruling regime in the region, without exception, will face these shocks and dangerous upheavals.
However, it is clear that smaller countries, in terms of size, population, or military capability, will be at greater risk.
I can confidently say that all countries in the region now recognize this reality, and each is searching for a protective shield to secure its borders and national security from these looming dangers.
Every nation is seeking a safety net, although each is aligning its strategies and alliances in a direction that suits its interests.
Some countries continue to cling to their long-standing alliance with the United States, which has been the most reliable and dominant global power for at least the past half-century.
However, the U.S. is now contemplating withdrawing from the Middle East, as it is less critical to its current strategic interests, with its focus shifting to more politically, militarily, and strategically important regions like the South China Sea and Eastern Europe.
The U.S. is preparing to make Israel the regional alternative, filling the vacuum it leaves behind, with continued American support.
Other countries, meanwhile, are trying to maintain a balanced stance between the major powers, appeasing regional threats to neutralize them in the event of a military flare-up, while simultaneously strengthening ties with the two other global military powers after the U.S.—China and Russia—through military links, arms purchases, and economic market openings.
It is entirely justifiable for countries to seek protection for their vital interests and national security through regional and international alliances.
However, the most critical dilemma remains: none of this will protect them from danger if their internal front is weak, unstable, or divided.
In times of real danger, these nations will face a severe human void because, in the end, it is the people who resist, sacrifice, and defend their homeland.
No foreign power, no matter how mighty, can fill the void left by the absence of a strong, united population willing to protect and sacrifice for its country.
An American, Russian, Indian, or Israeli will not come to die for your cause.
They seek prosperity and better opportunities, not to sacrifice their lives for some regime. In times of real crisis, they won’t be found on the front lines—if they are even there at all.
There are plenty of examples from many nations that serve as warnings and lessons.
