By Sama Marwan,
Ukraine, along with its Western partners, entertained the idea of a Trump presidency with mixed emotions. There were fantasies of a U.S. president who could act as a tougher ally, a dealmaker who might broker a peace deal, or someone who might offer a fresh perspective to end the protracted war with Russia. These hopes were little more than comforting fictions. Now, the harsh truth is clear: Ukraine’s path forward looks grim under a potential Trump administration.
Trump’s rhetoric is already known. He has claimed he could end the war “in 24 hours,” though without clarifying how. He also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying “Zelensky should never have let that war start,” and mockingly called him “one of the greatest salesmen I’ve ever seen,” a reference to the billions Zelensky secures from Congress with every visit. These wild exaggerations are no longer just words—they’re shaping the lens through which the incoming U.S. president will view the largest European conflict since World War II.
Despite some potential adjustments in the cabinet, Trump’s instinctive desire for withdrawal is clear. For him, Ukraine’s war does not align with his foreign policy principles. The Pentagon has found the war in Ukraine to be a relatively cheap way to weaken Russia, with no American lives lost, but Trump’s instincts run in the opposite direction—opposing costly foreign military engagements and seeking to avoid upsetting Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin’s Calculations and the Growing Risk for Ukraine
Russia, meanwhile, is preparing for what could be a decisive year. Moscow’s forces have been positioning themselves in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Donetsk, with the goal of tightening their grip on the region. If Russia succeeds in taking Donetsk, the path to cities like Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia could be clear, leaving Kyiv vulnerable and potentially tipping the scales of the war. But Russia’s efforts are facing a significant challenge. The Kremlin’s casualty rate is unsustainable, with some estimates suggesting Russia suffers around 1,200 casualties daily. This, combined with a potential crunch in military supplies and a difficult decision over a new mobilization, could stall Russia’s military momentum.
Putin has long hoped for a Trump victory, believing he could count on Trump’s instinctive isolationism and distrust of long-standing U.S. alliances. Trump’s erratic foreign policy approach has seen him prefer quick, dramatic solutions—like pulling out of Afghanistan or striking deals with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un—over long-term, strategic commitments. It remains unclear whether Trump will take a serious interest in the details of Ukraine’s war or simply avoid the issue altogether, preferring to withdraw and distance the U.S. from the conflict.
The Impact on Ukraine’s Morale and Zelensky’s Position
The potential damage to Ukraine’s morale could be profound. Ukrainian soldiers, recalling the frustrating months of waiting for U.S. military aid under the Biden administration, now face the possibility of further stalling or even a more hostile stance from Washington. In the past, aid had been delayed, leaving front-line troops in a precarious position. The real fear now is that under Trump, U.S. support could be pulled back, leaving Ukraine exposed.
Trump’s presidency also raises tough questions for Zelensky. For years, Zelensky has been a masterful salesman of Ukraine’s cause, but the baggage from Trump’s first term, including the controversial impeachment over the Biden family investigation, may complicate his role. Can Zelensky continue to effectively advocate for Ukraine, or is it time for a fresh face to navigate a more hostile or uncertain political landscape in Washington?
The Challenges of a Trump-Backed Peace Deal
As the war grinds on, any attempts at a peace deal backed by Trump could prove even more detrimental. Russia has historically used negotiations as a way to buy time and achieve military objectives, as seen in Syria and Ukraine in 2015. Putin’s territorial gains at the negotiating table will not stop his ambition. He has framed the war as a battle between Russia and the entire NATO alliance, making it harder for him to back down without losing face. The war has become a tool for Putin to retain his grip on power domestically, and he is unlikely to accept anything less than significant territorial gains.
The lessons learned from Ukraine’s resistance, however, are crucial. For years, the West feared Russia’s military power, but Ukraine’s defiance has proven that Russia’s military might is not as formidable as once thought. However, a Trump administration may seek to downplay this reality, arguing that the West should not fear Russia’s capabilities. If this narrative takes hold, it could undermine the West’s resolve and play directly into Putin’s hands.
Putin’s Strategic Goals and a Potential Shift in the Regional Balance
Russia’s objectives have never been limited to Ukraine alone. Putin’s larger goal is to assert Russia’s dominance over its neighbors, and recent developments in Georgia and Moldova show that Moscow may continue to intervene in pro-European movements in these countries. Putin’s desire for a greater regional influence remains intact. The war in Ukraine, after nearly three years, is unlikely to end with Russia settling for its current territorial gains. Putin’s need for a significant victory is growing stronger as the war drags on, and his maximalist ambitions show no sign of abating.
Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Ukraine and the West
As Ukraine faces the prospect of a Trump presidency, the stakes for Kyiv have never been higher. The war may continue to drag on with no clear path to victory, but Trump’s arrival in the White House brings with it a dangerous unpredictability. For Zelensky and the Ukrainian people, the hope of Western support may be fading, and the future of Ukraine’s resistance is uncertain. The lessons of the past two years have shown that fear of Russia is misplaced—but under a Trump administration, the West may be forced to swallow a dangerous narrative that could play directly into Putin’s hands.
